A transparent record of how F1 Grid IQ's published predictions and optimizer have performed, race by race.
This page tracks how F1 Grid IQ's F1 Fantasy projections and optimizer recommendations have actually performed, measured the same way every time and compared against a few other established F1 Fantasy tools: BoxBox, F1 Fantasy Tools and Race Strategist. The goal is to show real, checkable results — not a claim.
Each race gets a composite score out of 100, made up of three weighted parts:
Each tool's own projected-points figure is read from the field it publishes for that purpose (F1 Grid IQ and F1 Fantasy Tools both label it "XPT," Race Strategist uses "FCST," BoxBox shows it as a red "proj" value in its own interface).
Composite scores added up across the races graded so far:
| Model | After Belgium | Before Azerbaijan | After Azerbaijan | After Bahrain | After Singapore | After COTA | After Mexico City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 Grid IQ | 282.70 | 379.30 | 479.30 | 646.65 | 730.72 | 822.82 | 916.52 |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 262.80 | 353.13 | 434.19 | 608.06 | 690.07 | 788.11 | 882.33 |
| BoxBox | 272.10 | 366.04 | 444.36 | 610.96 | 703.60 | 800.38 | 879.19 |
| Race Strategist | 257.70 | 337.54 | 422.74 | 609.71 | 703.61 | 785.37 | 865.70 |
Races were graded between some checkpoints whose individual scores aren't part of this published record — only the verified checkpoints above are shown, never a figure inferred by working backward from the totals.
F1 Grid IQ's points lead over 2nd place, tracked over time: After Bahrain: +35.69 · After Singapore: +27.11 · After COTA: +22.44 · After Mexico City: +34.19.
| Model | Composite score |
|---|---|
| F1 Grid IQ | 99.80 |
| BoxBox | 91.70 |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 88.30 |
| Race Strategist | 81.60 |
| Model | Composite score |
|---|---|
| F1 Grid IQ | 100.00 |
| Race Strategist | 85.20 |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 81.06 |
| BoxBox | 78.32 |
The real best-possible ("hindsight-optimal") team for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix scored 318 fantasy points. Each tool's own recommended team actually scored:
| Model | Team points | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| F1 Grid IQ | 255 | 80.2% |
| Race Strategist | 241 | 75.8% |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 232 | 73.0% |
| BoxBox | 188 | 59.1% |
| Model | Composite score |
|---|---|
| Race Strategist | 92.61 |
| F1 Grid IQ | 87.97 |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 87.51 |
| BoxBox | 79.94 |
The real best-possible ("hindsight-optimal") team for the Bahrain Grand Prix scored 382 fantasy points. Each tool's own recommended team actually scored:
| Model | Team points | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| F1 Grid IQ | 331 | 86.6% |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 306 | 80.1% |
| Race Strategist | 302 | 79.1% |
| BoxBox | 262 | 68.6% |
See the full pre-race projections on the Bahrain Grand Prix page.
Race Strategist had the highest overall model grade for this race; F1 Grid IQ had the highest-scoring recommended team.
| Model | Composite score |
|---|---|
| Race Strategist | 93.90 |
| BoxBox | 92.64 |
| F1 Grid IQ | 84.07 |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 82.01 |
The real best-possible ("hindsight-optimal") team for the Singapore Grand Prix scored 352 fantasy points. Each tool's own recommended team actually scored:
| Model | Team points | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 287 | 81.5% |
| F1 Grid IQ | 276 | 78.4% |
| BoxBox | 255 | 72.4% |
| Race Strategist | 252 | 71.6% |
See the full pre-race projections on the Singapore Grand Prix page.
Race Strategist had the highest overall model grade for this race; F1 Fantasy Tools had the highest-scoring recommended team.
| Model | Composite score |
|---|---|
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 98.04 |
| BoxBox | 96.78 |
| F1 Grid IQ | 92.10 |
| Race Strategist | 81.76 |
The real best-possible ("hindsight-optimal") team for the United States Grand Prix scored 321 fantasy points. Each tool's own recommended team actually scored:
| Model | Team points | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 273 | 85.0% |
| BoxBox | 270 | 84.1% |
| F1 Grid IQ | 254 | 79.1% |
| Race Strategist | 178 | 55.5% |
See the full pre-race projections on the United States Grand Prix page.
F1 Fantasy Tools had both the highest overall model grade and the highest-scoring recommended team for this race.
| Model | Composite score |
|---|---|
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 94.22 |
| F1 Grid IQ | 93.70 |
| Race Strategist | 80.33 |
| BoxBox | 78.81 |
The real best-possible ("hindsight-optimal") team for the Mexico City Grand Prix scored 347 fantasy points. Each tool's own recommended team actually scored:
| Model | Team points | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 238 | 68.6% |
| BoxBox | 218 | 62.8% |
| Race Strategist | 212 | 61.1% |
| F1 Grid IQ | 208 | 59.9% |
See the full pre-race projections on the Mexico City Grand Prix page.
F1 Fantasy Tools had the highest overall model grade (by 0.52) and the highest-scoring recommended team; F1 Grid IQ had the top driver-ranking and projection-accuracy grades. Why F1 Fantasy Tools came out ahead in Mexico City: our recommended team had Fernando Alonso, who retired from the race (-19 points), while theirs had Liam Lawson, who scored 27 after being disqualified from qualifying and starting from the back. Neither was predictable before teams locked: the disqualification came after lock, and the retirement was bad luck. Those two picks alone were a 46-point swing, in a race decided by 30.
Before the composite scoring above was in use, we ran a simpler comparison: total point-projection error (predicted minus actual, unsigned) summed across 33 drivers and constructors for one race weekend. Lower is better. This is a different method from the composite scores above and the two aren't combined.
| Model | Total point error |
|---|---|
| F1 Grid IQ | 293.80 |
| F1 Fantasy Tools | 354.50 |
| Race Strategist | 386.00 |
BoxBox isn't included in this older check — a reliable projection export wasn't available for that race.
Separate from these graded predictions, we also publish hindsight analyses of the 2026 season that are not predictions at all: what the best season strategy looked like once every result was known, and what an extra $1M of budget was worth. For plans, prices and features side by side, see how F1 Grid IQ compares with F1 Fantasy Tools.
See how these projections played out for specific races on the Bahrain Grand Prix page and the Singapore Grand Prix page and the United States Grand Prix page and the Mexico City Grand Prix page, or the full methodology on the main F1 Fantasy predictions page. Looking ahead, the next published projections are on the São Paulo Grand Prix F1 Fantasy predictions page.
See the current rankings and optimizer this methodology is built on.
See the Current F1 Grid IQ Rankings & Optimizer →See also how the established F1 Fantasy tools compare, the F1 Fantasy optimizer, predictions & simulations, driver & constructor rankings, the 2026 season strategy analysis, and our FAQ.