F1GridIQ · Expected Points Engine

// Setup

Race & budget

Budget $M

Track overtakes

Era multiplier

Keep in bank $M0.0

Budget the optimal squad must leave unspent — for next week's transfers, or to hunt the best squad that still banks $1M, $2M, etc.

Model

Favorite confidence0.50

0.5 keeps the market as-is; above leans harder on a favorite’s upside, below fades it. Even at max, a 36%-win driver lands ~P5 (he loses 64% of the time) — that's correct.

Odds input format

Markets

Driver	Team	Price$M	Win%	Pod%	Top6%	Top10%	Quali%	FL%	DOTDauto	OTauto	NC%	Pos±auto	Form%±	Pitlane	Uselock/ban

Constructor	Price$M	Both Q3%	Both Q2%	1 in Q3%	Avg pitpts	Uselock/ban

// Rankings live

Strong Fair Premium

★ Budget-Optimal Squad max xPts under cap

ShowSortMin gain $M

Driver Rankings

Constructor Rankings

// Budget Targets β · points needed per price move + odds

Enter this race's odds and fetch prices (Prices → Fetch latest) — then this shows, for every driver, the points they need this race to hit each price band (Great / Good / Poor / Terrible) and the odds of reaching it. The same numbers as tapping a driver's xP, all in one place.

// Price Moves β · season drift & momentum

Pulls every gameday's price feed and shows each driver's and constructor's season drift and latest move. Needs the hosted site. A points→price rule appears automatically once the feeds expose enough data to fit one.

// League β · private-league standings

Enter your private-league id (the number in your league's standings URL) and Load to see the table — rank, points, weekly trend, and each rival's squad. Public data; needs the hosted site.

// My Team β · sync & transfers

Run the capture snippet on the F1 site (see docs/capture-snippet.md), open your Team or Transfers page, run __f1dump(), then Sync the downloaded file here. It loads your squad, budget and free transfers and recommends the best moves (−10 per transfer beyond free). Enter this race's odds first so the model can compare.

// Chip Advisor β · best week to burn each chip

Load the grid and enter this race's odds — then this ranks your chips by how many points each would add this week, so you know which one is worth burning.

// Live β · race scoring

During a race or sprint this shows live points for your team (and your league) from F1's public live feed, refreshing every 30s — dormant between sessions. Sync your team and load your league first. Needs the hosted site.

// Season log β · predicted vs actual

After a race (Go live to pull the points), hit Log this gameday to record your team's predicted vs actual points. Builds a season history you can export.